FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING
cod. 1006726

Academic year 2024/25
2° year of course - First semester
Professor
Carlo ROSA
Academic discipline
Economia politica (SECS-P/01)
Field
Economico
Type of training activity
Characterising
63 hours
of face-to-face activities
9 credits
hub: PARMA
course unit
in ENGLISH

Learning objectives

Knowledge and understanding The student:
-will learn to understand the key issues related to asset pricing and empirical finance
-will learn to evaluate what is happening on financial markets, and to evaluate Federal Reserve decisions and communications.

Applying knowledge and understanding
-Learning about specialized tools of finance for the analysis of economic and financial models at advanced level.

Making judgments
-Ability to assess and make independent evaluations about findings of analysis financial sector and Federal Reserve decisions.

Communication skills
-Ability to draw up and present criticism of financial and credit markets, the crisis in these markets and central bank solutions.

Learning skills.
-Ability to present complex topics concisely using formal language, description and examination of institutional phenomena

Prerequisites

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Course unit content

The course (63 hours) is held by prof. Carlo Rosa (63 ore) and consists of the following topics:
Monetary economics and central banking
- Optimal currency area in the euro zone
- Time Inconsistency and Monetary Policy
- Search-Theoretic Models of Money
- The European Central Bank
- Monetary policy in the euro area
- The euro and financial markets
- ECB monetary policy during COVID-19
- Monetary policy of the Federal Reserve
- Fed-related stock anomalies
- Informational efficiency and empirical tests
- Central bank communication and the effects on asset prices
Empirical finance
- Introduction to GRETL
- I(0) and I(1) variables, unit root tests
- Cointegration: Engle-Granger and Johansen methods
- Diagnostic tests of OLS regression output
- Other estimators: quantile regression

Full programme

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Bibliography

- Journal articles
- Paul Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld, Marc Melitz. International Economics: Theory and Policy, Pearson, Global Edition 12th Edition. (Chapter 21. Optimum Currency Areas and the Euro)
- Paul De Grauwe. Economics of Monetary Union. Oxford University Press, 13th edition. (Chapters 9. The European Central Bank; Chapter 10. Monetary Policy in the Eurozone; Chapter 12. The euro and financial markets)
- Selected chapters of WH Greene, Econometric analysis (Prentice Hall)
- FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING: Prof. Carlo Rosa, a. a.
2024 - 25 , “Lecture notes”, available on Elly

Teaching methods

Acquisition of knowledge: class lectures and discussions of concrete
problems

Acquisition of the ability to apply knowledge: discussion of financial
issues and Central Bank’s interventions

Acquisition of judgment:
During the course students will be encouraged to link theory to real world of finance

Acquisition of learning skills:
for each topic students will start from a description of the problem and critically analyze solutions.

Acquisition of technical language: during the course the meaning of the terms commonly used by the community will be illustrated.

Assessment methods and criteria

Written exam with possible oral integration at the discretion of the teacher.

The maximum final score for the first part of the course is 30/30 and will be calculated in the following way:

- Knowledge, ability to apply knowledge, and autonomy of judgment will be ascertained with the answers to two open questions, each divided into several specific points, which will be evaluated up to 15 points.
-The ability to communicate with appropriate technical language will be ascertained through the formal precision of the answers.
- Any oral integration will serves to clarify some doubtful points in the answers.

The final mark will be 30 cum laude when all the parts of the exam (written text or oral exposition; teamwork or other forms of cooperative work) are excellent for completeness, clarity, brightness, vividness and organization of the answers, capacity of multidisciplinary connections.

Other information

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